In this article I will take a look at the NFL quarterbacks and how they are doing halfway through the year. I believe in the three legged stool approach of evaluating QB play: downfield passing, interceptions, and sacks. There are always trade offs in the game of football and I believe studying these features provides a nice snapshot into which tradeoffs a QB is making. A QB who is attacking down field is either: sitting in the pocket, going through reads and waiting for players to get open, and thus taking more sacks, or they are throwing sooner into tighter windows and risking more interceptions. Alternatively, a QB who is avoiding sacks and interceptions at all costs is probably making short, quick throws that gain little yardage.
Interception rate and sack rate are self-evident measures of what a QB is doing in those categories. Completed air yards per attempt, or CAY/PA, I believe is the best measure of effective downfield passing. Yards per attempt can be clouded by yards after catch and can over-reward screens and slants. Other air yard stats tend to overvalue QBs who attempt downfield passes but don't necessarily complete them at a good rate, i.e. Jordan Love.
Before we get into it, I want to add one final caveat. This is not a measure of QB quality in a vacuum. You cannot separate these stats from the quality of a QB's offensive line or pass catchers. Nor can you separate these stats from the team's play calling, i.e. the Kyle Shanahan system is very good at scheming deep shots off of play action that push the ball downfield but limit the chances of a sack or interception. Also, it does not account for the ability of a QB to run, a very valuable quality. However, I believe it is a good measure of the health of a passing attack. It is also a way to see what tradeoffs a give quarterback is making.
Any QB not listed below has not racked up enough stats to be eligible.
Key:
Player Name: CAY/PA rank (rate), Interception % rank (rate), Sack % rank (rate) - Overall score
T=Tie
C. J. Stroud: 2 (4.5), 1 (0.4), 11 (6.1) - 14
Kirk Cousins: 7 (4.3), 8 (1.6), 7 (5.2) - 22
Tua Tagovailoa: 3T (4.4), 18 (2.3), 3 (4.3) - 24
Brock Purdy: 1 (4.9), 15T (2.2), 10 (5.9) - 26
Jared Goff: 14 (4.0), 9T (1.7), 5 (4.9) - 28
All five of the above quarterbacks play in a Shanahan influenced scheme. This shows how good Stroud has been as a rookie, what a shame Cousins injury is, and how the YAC (yards after catch) King accusations leveled at Purdy are greatly exaggerated.
Baker Mayfield: 21T (3.5), 5T (1.4), 4 (4.5) - 30
Derek Carr: 19T (3.6), 3T (1.3), 9 (5.7) - 31
Neither of the above QBs are attacking downfield especially well but both are doing a good job avoiding sacks and INTs.
Lamar Jackson: 8 (4.2), 2 (1.2), 23 (7.7) - 33
Josh Allen: 9T (4.1), 24T (2.8), 2 (3.9) - 35
These two are a good example of these tradeoffs. Both are passing downfield at similar rates but while Jackson is avoiding interceptions and taking sacks, Allen is doing the opposite.
Matt Stafford: 3T (4.4), 20T (2.5), 14 (6.4) - 37
Trevor Lawrence: 16T (3.8), 7 (1.5), 16T (6.6) - 39
Justin Herbert: 19T (3.6), 5T (1.4), 16T (6.6) - 40
Joe Burrow: 30T (2.8), 3T (1.3), 8 (5.5) - 41
Burrow's stats largely reflect how he was playing at the start of the season, while he was still nursing a calf injury. All quick passes, avoiding turnovers and hits in the pocket.
Dak Prescott: 9T (4.1), 13T (1.9), 22T (7.7) - 44
Jalen Hurts: 3T (4.4), 23 (2.6), 19 (6.7) - 45
Joshua Dobbs: 23T (3.4), 9T (1.7), 13 (6.3) - 45
Patrick Mahomes: 28 (3.1), 19 (2.4), 1 (3.5) - 48
I hope this list does not imply I believe that Dobbs is better than Mahomes, I do not. However, it does illustrate that teams are forcing Mahomes to dink and dunk down the field and you would like to see him do that without throwing so many interceptions.
Geno Smith: 9T (4.1), 24T (2.8), 16T (6.6) - 49
Gardner Minshew II: 25 (3.3), 15T (2.2), 12 (6.2) - 52
Desmond Ridder: 9T (4.1), 20T (2.5), 25T (9.4) - 54
Deshaun Watson: 16T (3.8), 15T (2.2), 24 (8.7) - 55
Kenny Pickett: 26T (3.2), 9T (1.7), 20 (6.9) - 55
Jimmy Garoppolo: 3T (4.4), 32 (5.4), 21 (7.2) - 56
If anything this undersells how poorly Jimmy G has played. He ranks last of 32 QBs in interception rate and the gap between him and number 31 (Daniel Jones) is the same as the gap between number 31 and number 15 (Deshaun Watson).
Russell Wilson: 23T (3.4), 9T (1.7), 27 (10) - 59
Although the basic stats (Yards and Touchdowns) are still good Wilson is not avoiding sacks like he used to and the Broncos offense is suffering accordingly.
Mac Jones: 30T (2.8), 27 (3.0), 6 (5.0) - 63
Jordan Love: 21T (3.5), 28 (3.1), 15 (6.5) - 64
Sam Howell: 15 (3.9), 20T (2.5), 30 (11.1) - 65
Zach Wilson: 26T (3.2), 13T (1.9), 28 (10.4) - 67
Are any of these young quarterbacks the future of their franchises? The most optimism is around Howell but you would hope he can cut down on the mistakes, especially the sacks.
Ryan Tannehill: 9T (4.1), 30T (3.8), 29 (10.7) - 68
Justin Fields: 18 (3.7), 29 (3.7), 31 (12.9) - 78
Bryce Young: 32 (2.7), 24T (2.8), 25T (9.4) - 81
Daniel Jones: 29 (2.9), 30T (3.8), 32 (15.8) - 91
There is certainly no surprise at which three QBs are at the bottom of this list.