I think there are three tiers of NBA prospects. Any prospect worth anything should eventually be able to win in the playoffs, I don’t have a lot of use for good stats bad team guys like Zach Lavine. The first tier is potential future MVP level players, I don’t think there are any players with that potential in this draft class. The second tier is potential All-star level players, I think there are eight players with that potential in this draft. The third tier is made up of players who at best can be role players on championship team.
1. Anthony Edwards: I believe that although every draft has inherit risk this draft is especially risky. No one exemplifies that better than Edwards who is a talented but concerning player. On the one hand he has better than prototypical NBA size, physically he reminds me most of Victor Oladipo, is extremely athletic and coordinated. He also brings a nice collection of NBA dribble moves. However, there are real concerns about his motivation. At UGA he had a tendency to drift in and out of games and recently there have been some troubling quotes about how he is more interested in football and how he rarely even watches basketball games. I honestly don’t know if he is worth the risk, he is at the top of my board because someone had to be and every other prospect bring their own flaws, and I am glad I’m not the one who has to make the franchise altering decision.
2. Killian Hayes: A very talented foreign prospect who is somewhat divisive among draftniks. He brings good size, skill, passing and shooting ability to the guard position. On the other hand he is a very raw player, in fact he often struggles dribbling and finishing with his off hand (his right).
3. Onyeka Okongwu: Comparing Okongwu to Bam Adebayo is a terrible cliché but like all clichés there is an element of truth to it. Like Adebayo he has quick feet and is a very smart defender, he can easily switch out and guard the perimeter. Also like Adebayo he is a very good passer and playmaker which is such a great skill for a big man to have. His downsides are simple; he maybe a bit undersized to play center fulltime and is probably not a good enough shooter (72% FT) to play stretch-4.
4. James Wiseman: Has great size, great athleticism, and great scoring potential. He has shown an ability to score from anywhere, the post or the perimeter, with ease. I would have him higher except for the fact the he struggles in two key areas: passing and defending. I wish he was competent at both or good at at least one of those two skill, which are very crucial for surviving in today’s NBA. However, he is young and I would not be surprised if he figures it out.
5. Tyrell Terry: It is a guards league in the NBA right now and Terry has potential to be the upset of this draft. Many analysts don’t have him going until mid to late first round. I think this would be a mistake, he has a rare blend of basketball intelligence and shooting ability both of which are invaluable assets for any team. There are two real concerns with his as a player. The first is his stature, he is only 6’1” and has a slight build. The second is that he sometimes seems to lack pop, or athleticism, when watching him on tape. Since declaring for the draft though Terry has worked hard on his body putting on a lot of weight and muscle. In recent workouts he has supposedly looked much more athletic. If this is true I believe he is worthy of a top five pick.
6. Tyrese Haliburton: Super high IQ player who has good size, playmaking and defensive ability. The downside for him is he does lack top tier athleticism and scoring ability. Best case scenario for him is someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a long and lanky genius, and the worst case is someone like Delon Wright, a fine player but not a franchise cornerstone.
7. Patrick Williams: A very young but very raw prospect who has some nice building block skills. Williams is an 84% free throw shooter and will probably develop into a solid 3-point shooter in the NBA, he also has good size and defensive ability and could comfortably play either forward spot. If he works on his playmaking and his ability to score off the dribble he has a long shot chance at becoming an All-star level player. And if not he should still be a solid 3-and-D player.
8. LaMelo Ball: Ball is a scintillating passer, the best in the draft but he has some real flaws that keep me from putting him higher. The first is his shooting, like his brother Lonzo he has a rather unconventional shot and somewhat struggles shooting free throws (70%). His brother had to basically rebuild his shot from the ground up when he got to the NBA to be a passable shooter and I think LaMelo will have to do the same. And it goes without saying that there is no guarantee of that working again. The second is his defense, although he has good size and is a smart player he really struggled defending in the Australian basketball league which is not a top tier league in terms of talent. Maybe it was just his motivation but no matter what it is concerning. Third and most concerningly was he struggled to turn the corner and penetrate defense in the ABL. He frequently took crazy-long Trae Young type pull up 3s which some scouts claim show his confidence but I think he often took those shots because he couldn’t get around his defender. He is such a good passer that is he can sort those things out he could be one of the best players in this draft.
This brings me to the end of the players who I think have a reasonable, if long, shot at becoming All-star level players. The remaining players in my rankings are players who I think top out at being good to great role players who can help their teams win in the playoffs.
9. Saddiq Bey:
10. Devin Vassell:
11. Tyrese Maxey:
12. Josh Green:
13. Kira Lewis Jr.:
14. Cole Anthony:
The above players are basically split into two groups. Bey, Vassell and Green are multifaceted wings who I don’t think could end up as All-stars but could be the second or third best player on a championship team. They did not win the title but think Malcolm Brogdon on the Bucks in 2019 when he was the second best playoff player on that team. Of those I think Bey is the most well rounded player with the best NBA size and Vassell is the best defender. The second group is a collection of point guards who are very talented but I don’t think have the playmaking skills of the top tier of guards. Of those Maxey has the most NBA ready body (Lewis is a bit slight and Anthony has shorter than ideal arms).